Walidacja skali SEDS (Szkockie Badania Zgonów w Epilepsji) przy użyciu danych rutynowych w Walii: badanie kohortowe wsteczne
Validation of the Scottish epilepsy deaths study (SEDS) score using routinely collected data in Wales: a retrospective cohort study
W skrócie
Naukowcy testowali specjalną skalę punktacyjną (SEDS), która ma na celu identyfikować pacjentów z epilepsją zagrożonych śmiercią związaną z tą chorobą. Badali dane z Walii obejmujące prawie 118 tysięcy pacjentów z epilepsją i znaleźli 423 zgony związane z epilepsją. Wyniki potwierdziły, że skala SEDS dobrze przewiduje ryzyko śmierci - pacjenci z wyższą punktacją mieli znacznie wyższe ryzyko zgonu w ciągu roku, zwłaszcza osoby z wysoką i bardzo wysoką punktacją.
Oryginalny abstract (angielski)
PURPOSE: The Scottish Epilepsy Deaths Study (SEDS) Score was developed to identify individuals at increased risk of epilepsy-related death. We externally validated the SEDS Score within the Welsh Population using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study of adults (≥18 years) with epilepsy living in Wales, 2015-2019. Five annual cohorts were created, with individuals followed for one year. Epilepsy-related deaths were defined as deaths with epilepsy recorded on death certificates. SEDS Scores were calculated for all individuals at the beginning of each cohort year and used to categorise low, medium, high, and very-high risk groups based on individual SEDS Scores. We used logistic regression to compare odds-ratios (ORs) for epilepsy-related death in each of the SEDS Score risk groups. RESULTS: We found 423 epilepsy-related deaths amongst 117,724 epilepsy person-years. An increasing SEDS Score was associated with increasing risk of epilepsy-related death. Odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for epilepsy-related deaths within one year (compared to the reference category (SEDS Score = 0)) for low, medium, high and very high-risk SEDS Score categories were 4.5 (1.6-10.0); 1.3 (1.0-1.7); 3.2 (2.4-4.3); and 7.6 (5.6-10.4) respectively. CONCLUSION: The SEDS Score demonstrates predictive value in identifying individuals at higher risk of epilepsy-related death within the Welsh population. SEDS Score performed particularly well for the high and very high-risk categories and may help prioritise targeted preventative interventions.